And adequate survey of U.S. economists echo in some new predictions and National Australia Bank's advice in next year.

2009 in its first report by the National Australia Bank announced that Australia's economic outlook, forecasting a mild recession, with unemployment rising sharply, the interest rate reduced to 2. 5%, in the September quarter, the deficit as high as 400.0 billion years later.

The bank said it expects the economy will be reduced to one year, an average of 0.25 percentage points, and will not increase in 2010, when the economy is expected to bring about a positive edge to rebound

Business confidence index for the bank's latest survey of these two regions to collect a small rebound last month, because apparently, the Government spending plans.

But it can not determine the recovery (that is, below the Fund barrels barrels more than the bottom), it will be long-lasting, perhaps in addition to housing.

National Australia Bank said that despite the end of 2008 the world avoid the worst massacre in Australia's gross domestic product forecasts decline in the global development, although carried out an active policy responses.

In December on the establishment of the trust read / November than did the unhappy results, the index dropped to less than the family, the level of slowdown in 2000.

Minimum conditions for the 11 months since the 1992 recession, but the National Bank said in a statement, "In the -20 level a bit better in 1990 than in the bottom of the economic recession."

"By 2009, we expect gross domestic product will be 0.25 percent – with a quarter of negative growth in the number of years. Therefore, the estimated mean (mild) in the 2009 recession. In the absence of the end of 2009, 2010 recovery of gross domestic product forecast has dropped to 1% (0.25% in 2009/10). "

National Bank in 2009 prior to the expected growth in 0. 50% and in 2010 increased by 1. 75%.

"For the non-farm gross domestic product, a slight decrease in the amount of a -0. 25% in 2009 to about 1% to 2010. During his tenure we expect GDP growth of 0.8 percent, 2008/09 , but only 0.25% of the 2009/10 financial year. "

The bank said that when the economy is reduced to 12-month period, "clearly point to a recession."

"Nevertheless, the estimates imply a relatively mild recession in Australia – especially compared to, about 2% of the growth rate of decline in the major industrialized economies."

Japan's economy is expected to contract this year, 2%, Singapore up to 5%, about 3%, while in Germany, the United Kingdom more than 2%.

The United States will contract 3 percent or higher, according to most surveys, but we will be a better idea Friday, when the first estimate released fourth-quarter gross domestic product.

Of the world economy will only grow by about 0. 5%, according to the report of the International Monetary Fund this week.

National Australia Bank said it believed "there is no activity in Australia, and the" rapid recovery.

"This means that, in the path of growth is the recovery of U-V – not really being increasingly to 2010.

"This shows that the majority of the forecast exercise, especially the year 2009/2010 (an increase of 25% of the island)."

National Australia Bank said its forecasts, including cash rate has declined by 4 to 3%. 25% of the time (the Reserve Bank's board of directors will be held next Tuesday).

"But the deterioration in the labor market to see if interest rates (2 × 0. The third quarter, 25%).

"We also hope to promote more active fiscal policy in 2009. In the private and public sector point of view, difference is that statement that the projections include:

"Private demand dropped by about 1.5 percent, in 2009 and 2010 were flat, increasing public demand for about 6% in 2009 and 5% in 2010

"This means that the most serious financial performance (2009/10 deficit of about 40 billion U.S. dollars), a marked deterioration in the labor market (unemployment rate reached 7%).

"With the inflation in 2008 will be the fourth quarters of negative (digital tomorrow), and wage pressures, core inflation rate, we see the central bank's objective is a standstill again in the second half of 2009."

Producer price index in December 2008 quarter, issued yesterday, showing an increase of 1. 3%, in the final stages of production, less than two quarters of 9%.

This is still far higher than most expected, in the 10 to increase the market consensus. 3%.

In the Australian Bureau of Statistics said the Australian dollar fell sharply, with the "tremendous impact on imports, driven by higher prices, offset by a 29% fall in the exchange rate impact of the cost of petroleum and petroleum products.

As can be greatly reduced, in the confidence of a slight rebound in December, and in terms of lending survey recorded a very interesting, but irrelevant.

"12 month investigation revealed that the government's financial spending plans in order to improve business confidence and under the condition of the largest one-month rebound – retail, wholesale and service sectors of disposable expenditure.

"This means that not all departments have better conditions – in order to continue in the mining industry, manufacturing, transportation and construction dropped significantly lesser extent.

Despite the sharp rebound in a month, "reported that the overall level of confidence and trading conditions remain very low, in the trend continued to decline.

"Obviously, the key problem is that in December the index represents an overly pessimistic view, the recent index of a turning point, especially for business confidence – are still in the last recession bottomed in 1990, the level of / 91 – or temporary rebound is unlikely to continue.

"Unfortunately, in an investigation pointed to the final outcome – or at least this is the way business is positioned for re-employment and business investment."

National Australia Bank said its recently introduced measures to provide recommendations to tighten credit, credit report (17% slow phase of the respondents, for in the November 27%).

"With 39% of respondents who reported no demand for credit – up to 30%), the results point the main problem is the lack of credit demand rather than supply of credit.

The bank also cut its 2009 growth forecasts for the global economy – just 0. 25% (from 1.7%).

"These forecasts as the terrifying figures to take the Economic Services Bureau at the end of 2008, published by the global financial turmoil, despite the spread of the central bank cut interest rates sharply to the real economy -.

"In the U.S., Japan, Europe and the United Kingdom about 1% of gross domestic product, the situation seems to have registered in the fourth quarter of 2008.

"Because of delays in the destruction of wealth, rising unemployment and falling commodity prices and falling business and consumer prices, all of these economies is unlikely to end of 2009 the fund – and the record has decreased by about 2% of gross domestic product.

Slowdown "has spread to the coordination of Latin America (product prices) and Asia (trade) with China's economic growth – fell to 6.25 percent, Asia except Japan, -1. 25%. In 2009 generated a total score of only domestic production value of 0.50% of the most serious since World War II.

"A modest recovery is expected by the end of 2009 until 2010 – to 2010, average annual growth below trend, however, 2.5 percent," said National Australia Bank.

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