This latest unemployment report on Friday is indeed impressive. The bulletin in November decrease of 53.3 million people unemployed is far more than 350,000, many economists and our estimate of 30-40 million, this month's expected value is high. This level of monthly job losses is greater than experiencing the 2001-02 recession and the most serious competitors in the post-war recession. In addition, pre-registration of unemployment in September and October were significantly reduced by more than 350,000 average of 2 months, more than 100,000 more than the average reported. Therefore, the labor market, like many other parts of the United States and the sharp decline in the global economy, and dramatically since last summer. But the November employment report had been much worse than before the surface of the figures. Yes, unemployment is widespread and worsening of the service sector, as well as manufacturing and construction. This growth will continue to erode the working mode, since the second half of 2007. However, 50 million jobs a level not expected until early next year to see it might be expected when the unemployment rate reached a peak. In order to level this November when the economy is still in decline, is huge, obviously, made 75 per month million in the context of the work of the losses. These additional work, the loss will be very easy for the unemployment rate is 7. 5% or more to confirm many economists, including us, the most serious expectations. But there are some things in the government employment report is the result we see in the current cycle of economic recession the unemployment problem, totally different from us since the Great Depression of the 20th century, 30 years experience. The Government reported last Friday, he mentioned that one. 900 million people who are available, but also to seek in the past 12 months of work, and did not find employment, and the government "report are not counted as unemployed because they do not search for 4 weeks prior to the employment of the investigation" 11. If we take this one. 900.00001 million. Report on the report of three million unemployed, your unemployment rate was 7. 9% of the approximately 155 million U.S. dollars, based on the civilian population by the Census and Statistics. We believe that this 7. 9% of the unemployment rate is more accurate job destruction measures, the unemployment rate in the Government's statement. We believe that this is a "free fall of the U.S. economy," verify the second quarter of this year, in particular, are subject to consumer spending and retail sales measure in the past 3 months. While the USA and USA to reduce gross domestic product. 5% in the third quarter, we believe that the fourth quarter of this year, about 5% of gross domestic product, narrowing and other 3% -5% in the first quarter of 2009 decline. We estimate that in the United States virtually no growth in gross domestic product in 2008 as the second half of this year's economic slowdown is greater than the first half of moderate growth. Please refer to our recent economic performance on our website in our demo page a more detailed analysis, forecasting and conclusions.

Earlier this week, the Economic Research (NBER), National Bureau of Statistics, an economist of the Academic Committee, significantly it is the official arbiter of economic cycles, said the U.S. economy in recession since December 2007. This confirms our analysis of the article we have on the economy, "we believe that we are here," March 10, 2008, he said that he believed the economy is entering in the first quarter of recession. This is based on a series of weak economic data, rising unemployment, including the second half of 2007 and 2008 in the first quarter, industrial activity weakened, increasing credit losses based on the financial system, financial situation deteriorated the U.S. consumer, communication from the residential -to-business markets, weakened corporate profits weakness of the real estate economy, weakening overseas. As we write this article, all of which an important aspect of the economy has been deteriorating, leading to increased weakness in the consumer market. We have been concerned about the consumer's financial situation for two years, has been the real estate bubble and consumer spending and income over the cost of writing. And our consumers a disastrous situation of poverty warning "bit" weak, leading to unemployment, the economy. It also pointed out that, in our article, "afterword in the credit cycle and private investment", June 24, 2007, the negative credit cycle going to get worse with the financial sector every disastrous consequences. In fact, we in the article is entitled "When the credit cycle turned into a negative, it does not become a little negative." Since the summer of 2007, we have seen since the Great Depression of the 20th century, 30 years in the international system, the most serious credit crisis. Governments around the world and the growing credit crisis in post-war economic incentives for the central bank's reaction to a tradition, an E. coli lower interest rates and repayment schedule for taxpayers. We write an article, ( "the Fed can rescue Wall Street," the first 1 and 2), August 12, 2007 and September 21, 2007 and the "Ministry of Finance. Will this take to resolve?" In December 2007 7, the success of the inherent lack of project, which is due to the exhaustion of the U.S. consumer's financial situation and the need to erase the bad loans of banks and credit intermediaries books. He also believed that corporate profits, economic growth and the stock market weakened during the period 2006-07, faster than most analysts expected a faster backbone. However, in two articles, "and then there was …", October 21, 2007, and" General Electric, income and food cycle ", April 14, 2008 warned that the rapid deterioration of the operating income has been fort in the company and the 2003-2006 stock market recovery company. In fact, the S & P 500 index in the third quarter earnings fell more than 20% over last year, and at its lowest point, if not by the oil industry revenues . So, as a moderate, controllable air subprime mortgage credit bubble began to expand rapidly to become a widespread financial credit crisis, in the vicinity of zero, resulting in the field of business and consumer demand. However, as mentioned above, long-term unemployment the growing threat of the current economic recession deeper and broader expectations. We now believe that the U.S. gross domestic product next year, can also be zero for 12 months to 12 months. This will allow the U.S. gross domestic product growth from 2007 to 2009 less than 1% of the average time of 3 years.

As bad as the U.S. recession has been extended fully in force, in foreign countries, and tell us the article, "This is the end", September 9, 2007 us, "the other shoe", January 7, 2008, our international the economy, the article "; this virus has spread," August 6, 2008, is the difference between foreign commentary said, August 6. Economic recession in the United States exports to cancel a number of foreign economic growth depends on them, and to reduce credit losses in the assets of international and national level have created an international financial crisis and the collapse of commodity prices, high economic fly undone, oil and other industrial and agricultural , global economic growth since 2004, leading to sale of commodities. The results in Western Europe, Japan, Australia's economic recession, now in Canada, the United States although not in the economic recession, India and China, the world's engine of economic growth over the past four years, a substantial decline in the mid-digit rate, in fact, have to learn dozens of billion-dollar project to stimulate continued to fall, further from economic growth. In addition, there is a major economic stimulus plan is in Europe and Japan. Foreign weakness is expected to be the world's major depression, in 2009 economic growth.

And most of the major industrialized countries and newly industrialized economies of the economic stimulus plan to combat the global economic recession Institute has taken hold, it is appropriate to evaluate the theory and success of these programs. We all spoke about the rescue plan before the United States in vain several articles ( "the Fed can rescue Wall Street," part 1 & 2,8, 12 and September 21, 2007, and "the Ministry of Finance plans. This is the solution it? ", December 7, 2007) to date. Finally, in March of this year, the U.S. government trapped in the need to eliminate non-performing loans, lending large amounts of liquidity into the banking system. Can restore the stability of the banking system's credit, then, for unknown reasons, the U.S. government recently changed gears and decided to return to consumer loans in order to reduce the increase in losses. We and some other analysts are puzzled by the U.S. government's response to imbalances in the current credit crisis. Capital markets, recently joined the hope that the new president's economic team Obama was elected there will be more successful program. However, in view of the above, while consumer spending increased significantly reduce the unemployment rate, we believe that less than addition to the purchase of bad loans from lending to restore consumer tax rebate program's second goal of the capital injected into the financial sector for economic recession, the recovery of the final stage. If the consumer is expected to consumption, they need to get their balance sheet debt, and have sufficient liquidity to begin the exercise of discretionary spending. Giving money to banks and automobile companies will not move "from the shelves of goods" in the current needs of the freeze. The consumer has not risen, the economic recession will continue into next year.

In addition, the foreign economic stimulus package of public spending will be for two main reasons for limited success. First of all, no one will be exported to "manipulate", and the United States, Western Europe and Japan's economic recession. Second, the collapse of commodity prices, severely depressed spending to stimulate the basis for commodities, such as Canada, Australia and the Middle East region's current economy. So, finally, the global economic recovery depended on the United States because it is the Second World War. To be sure, the United States with foreign governments and central banks are sparing no effort and cost expenditure heal the global financial crisis and economic recession. As a result of higher government budget deficit and national debt will increase substantially this year and next. Past, when we write the future costs as large as the United States and other deterioration in credit and currency markets, the country's balance sheet, especially the United States according to the global economic recession and the worsening economic outlook in 2009, this year's global capital markets virtually collapsed. The U.S. stock market has been reduced by about 40% so far this year, the stock market has already surpassed the United States in foreign countries during the past three years, had been reduced by 50%. In addition, the international credit market has stopped in the non-governmental international banks and mortgage loan losses. Now, the spread of industry recession, depressed corporate bond prices and non-government bonds rise in spreads. This will continue until the economic situation of stability. After the defeat in the past four years, all other asset markets, commodity prices have fallen, and has made huge losses, because in the summer before the effectiveness of commodity assets. In addition, a capital market, the largest, this year has been a victim of the hedge fund industry. After the excessive proliferation of the past four years is the "shock" the industry is inevitable. Derivatives leverage disappears and fair market, rather than government bonds, bank credit lines, finally, the collapse of investor redemption stampede, causing hedge funds to sell assets more frustrating capital markets and led to a growing number of hedge fund is closed. In addition, the "exhaustion" of the credit and the erosion of corporate earnings has ended private equity leveraged buyout boom. We have been in the way of mergers and acquisitions in our article warned that excessive speculation "Note: The asset bubble of the building", 19 November 2006 the demise of this cycle is to create one from the efforts of some of the pain investors in these companies These "surplus with the company was now" reeling in this economic downturn, "the amount of highly leveraged." As a result of the credit and capital markets crisis will be the supervision, transparency and greater investment in a new era of financial discipline. Wear and tear, as well as hedge funds and private equity strategy is a positive change in the future, a good investment in these industries. In fact, we believe that investment in infrastructure for the private equity firms change is very much to attract investors.

In the future, we have seen global stock markets, including the U.S. securities markets, have been undervalued 2-3 years. Many market analysts increasingly believe the economy already know a lot of bad news in the U.S. stock market discounts the view. However, we are more pessimistic view of unemployment and a more successful economic aid increases the uncertainty of the downside risks, the United States continue to work with foreign stock markets. Therefore, the risk of the stock market at this time of economic recession in the United States the duration of more than 2009-year timetable, more seriously, in the lower corporate profits and the failure of provisions. For the bond market, there are more opportunities, it is still an erosion of the credit cycle. Non-government bonds will be sold in the United States Treasury expanding profit margins on the bottom of the economic recession. In the long term, we believe that the financial and economic conditions will be a sharp increase in interest rates, and steady improvement in 2009-2011. In the current huge economic stimulus plan and the restoration of funding proposals require large bonuses to yield a significant increase from current levels. Commodities and commodity stocks are the most depressed in 2009, reaffirm our August 11, 2008 economic forecast for the dollar, commodities and geopolitical articles. "Is still standing on the assets of equity strategy is much higher than normal cash position defensively. We have to prevent the debt instruments, including sovereign debt. Have a fixed income, municipal bond market, a number of attractive opportunities, but also selectivity and credit must be due diligence. state and local governments another economic recession, as well as the credibility of the main victims are becoming increasingly strained. in the municipal credit, the reduction is expected in the next two years. once the current context of the economic cycle, We expect large demonstrations, led the U.S. stock market, and then later overseas markets. We will continue to attract investment in infrastructure and long-term need to improve infrastructure and expansion are enormous. other departments, we believe that an attractive investment, including power generation, save energy, agriculture, water conservancy and development, health and education.

We ask our economy and capital markets to current projections, this year and next year and long-term questions and comments, the rest of the economy and capital market outlook

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